Dr. William L Huth

We use data from an Internet-based survey and estimate the benefits of an oyster consumption safety policy with the contingent valuation method. In addition to providing a context-specific estimate of willingness-to-pay for oyster safety, we consider an important issue in the contingent valuation mortality risk reduction literature. A number of studies find that willingness-to-pay for mortality risk reduction is not sensitive to the scope of the risk change. We present the scope test as a difference in the number of lives saved by the program, instead of small changes in risk, and find that referendum votes are responsive to scope. A third feature of this article is that we identify those at-risk respondents who would most benefit from the policy and decompose willingness-to-pay into use values and altruistic nonuse values. We find that willingness-to-pay per life saved ranges from $3.95 million to$7.69 million for the private good of lives saved when the respondent is at risk (i.e., use values). Willingness-to-pay per life saved including both use and altruistic nonuse values ranges from $6.89 million to $12.87 million.

Lionfish (Pterois) are an invasive species in United States and Caribbean waters. First detected along the Florida coasts in the mid-1980s, their populations have increased dramatically in the past two decades as a result of having no known predators outside of their native habitat (Indo-Pacific). Lionfish were likely introduced into Florida waters after being released from aquariums, either intentionally as owners tired of maintaining them as pets or unintentionally from the destruction caused by hurricanes (Goddard, 2008). The rapidly growing population of lionfish is stressing the already fragile natural reefs in the Gulf of Mexico and is threatening commercial and recreational fisheries (such as the grouper and snapper fisheries). Local, state and federal regulatory agencies are actively looking for ways to reduce the population of lionfish, either to a stock size small enough to be commercially sustainable without disrupting native species or driving the stock down toward eradication.

Recent research examining voting behavior in contingent valuation referenda informs on how consequential survey respondents behave and its impact on willingness-to-pay (WTP) values. This research attempts to examine whether this behavior holds across population subgroups. We consider resident and nonresident users of artificial reefs and find improved construct validity for our resident models over nonresident models. Specifically, resident behavior is in line with a priori expectations with consequential residents more likely to vote in favor of a policy for additional reef funding - a result that is consistent with the protest no literature. Consequently, consequential resident voters exhibit a greater WTP than inconsequential voters. Nonresident behavior differs, however. For this subgroup, consequentiality does not influence voting behavior and WTP values do not differ by consequentiality. Overall, more work is required to appropriately identify WTP values for nonresident populations, particularly from a benefit-cost perspective, where appropriately identifying subgroup WTP values are a critical component of measuring the net present value of a given policy.

In this study we compare willingness to pay for a seafood traceability system from contingent behavior demand and contingent valuation referendum vote models using data from a survey of Gulf of Mexico oyster consumers following the BP oil spill in 2010. We estimate a random effects model of oyster demand using contingent behavior data and find that a traceability program increases demand and consumer surplus. We estimate a referendum model for the seafood traceability program using contingent valuation data. We find that welfare estimates from the contingent behavior and contingent valuation methods are convergent valid under certain conditions.

We fuse and jointly estimate revealed and stated preference data over the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill time horizon to analyze the potential for a new seafood traceability system to mitigate long-run decreases in product demand following a major contamination event. Findings indicate that traceability information flows that provide more precise information to oyster consumers regarding the location of harvest ameliorate consumers' perceived risk of eating oyster meals after the spill, leading to a significant increase in demand. Further, the magnitude of the increase is greater than the negative long-term, post-spill effects, leading to overall welfare gains. However, any price increase associated with the information will mitigate the initial welfare gains. Overall, our findings suggest that the potential success of a new seafood traceability system depends on implementation costs and the extent to which price increases are passed on to consumers.

Traditional revealed and stated preference models consider a typical individual's behavioural responses to various policy-based information treatments. For some cost-benefit applications in which resource managers are concerned with responses from a representative individual, this is sufficient. However, as behavioural responses to information treatments can vary across respondents, we develop a latent class analysis with covariates to examine unobserved heterogeneity responses to health-risk information treatments. Results from a probabilistic model indicate that classes of consumers respond differently to the health-risk information treatments. Principally, we find that the media form of the information treatment is important, with raw consumer groups typically more responsive to a brochure information treatment, while cooked oyster consumers are more responsive to the same information in a video format. We also find that a proposed US Food and Drug Administration policy on processing all raw oysters before market has a greater effect on reducing demand for consumers of cooked oysters. However, with an associated price premium, all consumer classes reduce demand. Overall, the results suggest that future policy-based research could benefit from examining potential heterogeneity in individuals' responses to risk information treatments in order to fully understand the efficacy of treatments on behaviour.

We exploit the timing of the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill to develop a unique dataset of oyster consumer actual and anticipated behavior immediately prior to and following the event. A revealed and stated preference model allows both short- and longer-term responses to the spill to be investigated. Findings indicate that the BP spill had a negative impact on oyster demand in terms of short-run actual behavior, although spill effects show signs of dissipating several months following the spill. By accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in the sample, findings further indicate that short- and longer-term spill responses differ across consumer groups.

Natural or coral reefs represent extremely valuable ecosystems supporting an estimated 25 percent of all marine life, yet recent reports suggest that 75 percent of the world’s natural reefs are under threat from both natural and human stressors. In areas such as the Florida Keys that boasts an expansive mix of natural and artificial reefs, recreational diving on the system provides an important economic contribution to the local community but also potentially contributes to the stress of the existing natural reef system. We develop a revealed and stated preference modeling framework of diver behavior and find that deployment of an additional large ship reef increases overall diving activity but does not impact diving behavior on the natural reef system.

Consumers’ willingness to pay for postharvest-processed (PHP) raw oysters—oysters without health risks—is studied in experimental auction markets. The experimental design decomposes the effects of taste, objective risk information, and information on four PHP technologies on consumer valuations. Results show that relatively uninformed consumers are willing to pay equivalent amounts for PHP and traditional raw oysters. However, after a blind taste test, consumers are willing to pay a significant premium for traditional raw oysters, and the premium persists after objective information on risk and processing technologies is provided. The results are robust across PHP technologies.

The combination and joint estimation of revealed and stated preference (RP/SP) data approach to examining consumer preferences to relevant policy-based measures typically fail to account for heterogeneity in the data by considering behavior of the average individual. However, in policy-based analyses, where the research is often driven by understanding how different individuals react to different or similar scenarios, a preferred approach would be to analyze preferences of homogenous population subgroups. We accomplish this by developing a split-sample RP/SP analysis that examines whether homogenous subgroups of the population, based on individual health and behavioral characteristics, respond differently to health-risk information and new food safety technology. The ongoing efforts by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to reduce illness and death associated with consuming raw Gulf of Mexico oysters provide an ideal platform for the analysis as the health risks only relate to a very specific consumer subgroup. Results from split-sample demand models indicate that educational information treatments cause vulnerable at-risk consumers to reduce their oyster demand, implying that a more structured approach to disseminating the brochures to the at-risk population could have the desired result of reducing annual illness levels. Also, findings across all subgroups provide strong empirical evidence that the new FDA policy requiring processing technology to be used in oyster production will have a detrimental effect on the oyster industry.