Dr. Jason T Ortegren

Tropical cyclones present substantial threats to coastal communities around the globe. In the United States alone, tropical cyclones (aka hurricanes) have caused over 1.8 billion in economic loss and over 6500 deaths since 1980 (NOAA. 2021 ), Hurricane winds can cause trees to be uprooted from the ground, damaging homes, powerlines, blocking roads, etc. However. most of the damage caused by hurricanes comes from flooding and storm surge. The area of focus for this study is Escambia County, Florida. On September 16, 2004. a category 3 hurricane, Hurrican Ivan, made landfall near Gulf Shores. Alabama and tore through the area. including Escambia County, Florida. Exactly 16 years later, on September 16. 2020. Hurricane Sally (category 2) made landfall also near Gulf Shores, Alabama, and devastated the region.

The goal of the study is to perform a quantitative, trend analysis on precipitation source proportionality in the month of September for the Gulf Coast region. The initial study area includes portions of Escambia County, Florida and Baldwin County. Alabama. As these areas are processed, grid zones along the coast through Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas may be included. The study will be performed on a temporal scale of every September between 1948 and 2018. Future work may seek to include multiple TCP datasets.