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Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon
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Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010? A Second Look Over the Horizon

Alfred G. Cuzán
09/15/2015

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Abstract

For the Republicans to regain control of the House of Representatives this year, the Democrats need to suffer a net loss of 40 members, or just under 16% of the 257 seats they took in 2008. With a model similar to one used previously (Cuzán and Bundrick 2006, Cuzán 2010), only estimated with elections since 1870, here I evaluate the likelihood of such an eventuality. An earlier, longer version was presented at the 2010 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., September 4.
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