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Conference paper
Will the Republicans retake the House in 2010?
American Political Science Association (Washington, D.C., 2010)
09/04/2010
Abstract
Historically, statistical models for forecasting the outcome of midterm elections to the United States House of Representatives have not been particularly successful (Jones and Cuzán 2006). However, in what may have been a breakthrough, in 2006 most models called it correctly (Cuzán 2007). However, in
what may have been a breakthrough, most models correctly predicted that the Democrats would re-emerge as the majority party in 2006 (Cuzán 2007). One successful model was estimated using 46 elections, beginning with 1914 (only the second time that 435 representatives, the present number, were elected). The model was relatively simple, making use of national-level variables only (Cuzán and Bundrick 2006). Using a similar model, I generated a forecast for the 2010 midterm election.
Details
- Title
- Will the Republicans retake the House in 2010?
- Resource Type
- Conference paper
- Conference
- American Political Science Association (Washington, D.C., 2010)
- Format
- pdf
- Copyright
- Permission granted to the University of West Florida Libraries by the author to digitize and/or display this information for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires the permission of the copyright holder.
- Identifiers
- 99380090635806600
- Academic Unit
- Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government ; College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities
- Language
- English