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Working paper
2012 Fiscal Model Failure: A Problem of Measurement?
SSRN Electronic Journal
SSRN
2012
Abstract
The Fiscal Model forecast of the 2012 presidential election published in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics not only failed to predict that President Obama would win reelection handily, but missed his actual share of the two-party vote by about five percent points (46.9% v. 51.8%). An “audit” of the model appears to show that the failure was likely caused by faulty measurement of fiscal policy of presidents who, like Obama, were in the first term of a new party reign. Taking account of those cases improves model fit and generates an out-of-sample forecast for 2012 that is within one percent point of the actual
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Details
- Title
- 2012 Fiscal Model Failure
- Publication Details
- SSRN Electronic Journal
- Resource Type
- Working paper
- Publisher
- SSRN
- Copyright
- © Alfred Cuzan 2012
- Identifiers
- 99380171985006600
- Academic Unit
- College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities; Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government
- Language
- English