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Understanding the impact of extreme war outcomes on future fights
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Understanding the impact of extreme war outcomes on future fights

Brian B Crisher
Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol.online ahead of print
08/05/2026
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942261473963
Web of Science ID: WOS:001840476700001

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Abstract

absolute wars conflict reoccurrence war reoccurrence war outcomes
Why do some defeated states remain peaceful while others quickly return to conflict? Here, I argue that the severity of wartime defeat shapes postwar behavior by suppressing and redirecting the conflict tendencies of losing states. Absolute outcomes, such as foreign-imposed regime change or state death, suppress renewed aggression by reducing a state's capacity for future conflicts. Yet suppression will likely be fleeting, and these states will be ready to fight again in the future. However, when they are ready to fight, their past experiences of extreme defeat will redirect conflict behavior by reducing hostility toward the previous victor and shifting attention to new adversaries. I test these expectations using binary outcome models to examine how absolute versus limited war outcomes impact postwar uses of force among defeated states. The results show that absolute outcomes lower the probability of renewed conflict and redirect postwar disputes away from the state that imposed the outcome. These findings highlight how the experience of catastrophic defeat restructures the ways through which states reenter the arena of violent international conflict.

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