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The Theil-Sen Slope for High-Stakes Decisions from Progress Monitoring
Journal article   Peer reviewed

The Theil-Sen Slope for High-Stakes Decisions from Progress Monitoring

Kimberly J. Vannest, Richard I. Parker, John L. Davis, Denise A. Soares and Stacey L. Smith
Behavioral disorders, Vol.37(4), pp.271-280
08/2012
Web of Science ID: WOS:000309751900005

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Abstract

More and more, schools are considering the use of progress monitoring data for high-stakes decisions such as special education eligibility, program changes to more restrictive environments, and major changes in educational goals. Those high-stakes types of data-based decisions will need methodological defensibility. Current practice for summarizing progress monitoring data is to use a hand-fit trend lines (for practitioner use) or linear regression (for research). This study critically examines both approaches and compares them to a new nonparametric slope called the Theil-Sen. A field test with 372 published data series compared hand-fit, linear regression, and Theil-Sen slopes against evaluative criteria of power and precision, meeting data assumptions, and agreement with visual judgments. Results indicate promise for Theil-Sen slope in defensible high-stakes decision making.

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