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Journal article
The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balance of Oil Sands Reclamation Covers and Natural Soil Profiles
Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.19(11), pp.1731-1752
11/2018
Web of Science ID: WOS:000448771200003
Abstract
The design of reclamation soil covers at oil sands mines in northern Alberta, Canada, has been conventionally based on the calibration of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) models against field monitoring observations collected over several years, followed by simulations of long-term performance using historical climate data. This paper evaluates the long-term water balances for reclamation covers on two oil sands landforms and three natural coarse-textured forest soil profiles using both historical climate data and future climate projections. Twenty-first century daily precipitation and temperature data from CanESM2 were downscaled based on three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) employing a stochastic weather generator [Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG)]. Relative humidity, wind speed, and net radiation were downscaled using the delta change method. Downscaled precipitation and estimated potential evapotranspiration were used as inputs to simulate soil water dynamics using physically based models. Probability distributions of growing season (April-October) actual evapotranspiration (AET) and net percolation (NP) for the baseline and future periods show that AET and NP at all sites are expected to increase throughout the twenty-first century regardless of RCP, time period, and soil profile. Greater increases in AET and NP are projected toward the end of the twenty-first century. The increases in future NP at the two reclamation covers are larger (as a percentage increase) than at most of the natural sites. Increases in NP will result in greater water yield to surface water and may accelerate the rate at which chemical constituents contained within mine waste are released to downstream receptors, suggesting these potential changes need to be considered in mine closure designs.
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Details
- Title
- The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balance of Oil Sands Reclamation Covers and Natural Soil Profiles
- Publication Details
- Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.19(11), pp.1731-1752
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Number of pages
- 22
- Grant note
- Government of Saskatchewan Syncrude Canada, Ltd. Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Canada 428588-11 / Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
- Copyright
- © 2018 American Meteorological Society
- Identifiers
- WOS:000448771200003; 99381512143506600
- Academic Unit
- Civil Engineering and Construction Management; Hal Marcus College of Science and Engineering
- Language
- English