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Temporal asymmetries in hotel performance: Evidence of a 4.4-month quality-price phase gap creating predictable occupancy opportunities
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Temporal asymmetries in hotel performance: Evidence of a 4.4-month quality-price phase gap creating predictable occupancy opportunities

Xuan Tran
International journal of hospitality management, Vol.140, 104873
01/2027
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2026.104873
Web of Science ID: WOS:001849532700001

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Abstract

Bayesian inference Business cycles Fourier decomposition Occupancy optimization Quality-price. gap window (QPGW) Revenue management Structural equation modeling Temporal phase analysis Commerce Hotel or Restaurant Management Tourism
This study examines whether hotel quality dimensions systematically lead financial performance through phase angle differentiation within business cycles, challenging the temporal homogeneity assumption in revenue management. Fourier decomposition integrated with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analyzes 420 monthly U.S. hotel observations (1990–2024) under a Bayesian Prior → Likelihood → Posterior architecture. Phase angles (θ) quantify temporal positioning; cross-spectral coherence (C² ≈ 0.71) and Bai-Perron diagnostics confirm spectral stability. Quality metrics peak at θ ≈ π/6 (Month 17.5 post-trough) while financial metrics peak at θ ≈ π/4 (Month 21.9), yielding a posterior gap of 4.4 months (95% credible interval: 3.4–5.4, p <.001). Bayesian model comparison places 71% posterior probability on the phase structure model (log Bayes Factor = 3.1). During the quality-price gap window (Months 17–21), occupancy lift averages + 12.5 %age points across six cycles (Bayes Factor ≈ 18.4). Analysis relies on U.S. national aggregates comprising six independent business-cycle realizations; the design is observational. Associations are consistent with but do not establish causal mechanisms. Property-level replication is needed. Phase-aware cycle positioning may complement conventional forecasting. Expected revenue per available room advantage: $12.40/room/night (90% posterior predictive interval: $6.80–$17.90); probability that the phase-aware strategy outperforms uniform strategy = 0.89. Among the first hospitality studies applying Bayesian inference and Fourier phase analysis to hotel performance temporality, complementing conventional revenue management with a frequency-domain approach.

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