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Journal article
Predicting the results of the 2010 midterm elections: Judgment, econometrics, and prediction markets
Foresight, the international journal of applied forecasting, pp.41-44
2011
Abstract
Alfred Cuzán offers his postmortem on forecasts made for the midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. His evaluation compares the judgment of three experts, six statistical models, and one (betting) prediction market. It seems like the best political forecasts emerge when forecasters place their bets. However, this issue of Foresight contains a related article on corporate prediction markets (p. 35), where the challenges of implementation are arguably greater than those in election markets.
Details
- Title
- Predicting the results of the 2010 midterm elections
- Publication Details
- Foresight, the international journal of applied forecasting, pp.41-44
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- International Institute of Forecasters
- Format
- pdf
- Identifiers
- 99380090644606600
- Academic Unit
- Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government ; College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities
- Language
- English