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Journal article
Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in presidential elections
American Politics Quarterly, Vol.27(3), pp.338-353
27
1999
Web of Science ID: WOS:000081394700004
Abstract
This research note presents a model in which fiscal policy, measured by changes in the ratio of federal outlays to gross national product between election years, is a factor in explaining and forecasting the outcome of the past 30 presidential elections. Compared with six forecasting models assembled in a special issue of this journal in the fall of 1996, the model performs satisfactorily. The model implies that to win reelection or extend his party's tenure in the White House, a president should reject a policy of fiscal expansion. It is hoped that this article will stimulate students of presidential elections to add policy variables to their forecasting models.
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Details
- Title
- Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in presidential elections
- Publication Details
- American Politics Quarterly, Vol.27(3), pp.338-353
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Sage Publications; United States
- Series
- 27
- Format
- 1 website link
- Copyright
- ©1999 Sage Publications, Inc.
- Identifiers
- WOS:000081394700004; 99380090636006600
- Academic Unit
- Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government ; College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities
- Language
- English