Metrics
16 Record Views
Journal article
Fiscal Policy: An implicit factor in the Trial-heat and Time-for-change models
09/09/2005
Abstract
When it comes to forecasting the incumbent share of the two-party vote in American presidential elections (VOTE2), Alan Abramowitz’s time-for-change model (henceforth TFC) and James E. Campbell’s trial-heat model (TH) rank among the best performers of what we call the Campbell Collection, named after the editor or co-editor of several symposia in which these models, along with others, appeared.2 In this essay we compare the TFC and TH models with the fiscal model, a newcomer to the forecasting sweepstakes, which took first prize in 2004, its July forecast coming within 0.1% of President Bush’s actual share of the two-party vote. With national and state-level presidential elections data, we show that the defining variable in this model, fiscal policy, appears to be an implicit factor in both the time-for-change and trial-heat models.
Details
- Title
- Fiscal Policy: An implicit factor in the Trial-heat and Time-for-change models
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Cuzán and Bundrick; Researchgate
- Format
- link
- Number of pages
- 19
- Copyright
- Permission granted to the University of West Florida Libraries by the author to digitize and/or display this information for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires the permission of the copyright holder.
- Identifiers
- 99380570996706600
- Academic Unit
- College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities; Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government
- Language
- English