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Journal article
Fiscal Model Failure: A measurement problem? A preliminary analysis
PS, political science & politics, Vol.46(1), pp.42-43
01/01/2013
Web of Science ID: WOS:000313067000017
Abstract
The Fiscal Model of presidential elections not only failed to predict that President Obama would win reelection handily, but the error incurred in the forecast of the incumbent share of the two-party vote was such (46.9% vs. 51.8% or more) as to warrant a rating of “inaccurate” or “quite inaccurate” in Campbell's table of benchmarks for evaluating forecasts (Campbell 2012, 611). This recap is a preliminary assessment of what went wrong.
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Details
- Title
- Fiscal Model Failure
- Publication Details
- PS, political science & politics, Vol.46(1), pp.42-43
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- Copyright
- © American Political Science Association 2013
- Identifiers
- WOS:000313067000017; 99380171572006600
- Academic Unit
- College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities; Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government
- Language
- English