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Journal article
Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote
PS, political science & politics, Vol.47(2), pp.427-431
04/01/2014
Web of Science ID: WOS:000337726500034
Abstract
We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts' judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts.
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Details
- Title
- Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote
- Publication Details
- PS, political science & politics, Vol.47(2), pp.427-431
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Cambridge Univ Press
- Copyright
- © American Political Science Association 2014
- Identifiers
- WOS:000337726500034; 99380171985406600
- Academic Unit
- College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities; Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government
- Language
- English