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A fiscal model of presidential elections in the United States: 1880-1980
Journal article   Peer reviewed

A fiscal model of presidential elections in the United States: 1880-1980

Alfred G. Cuzán and Richard J. Heggen
Presidential studies quarterly, Vol.14, pp.98-108
14
1984

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Abstract

The paper presents a model in which the re-election of presidential incumbents is a negative function of increases and accelerations in federal expenditures relative to Gross National Product. Data on 26 elections held between 1880 and 1980 tend to support this hypothesis. We also find that the fiscal-electoral system of the United States exhibits homeostatic behavior similar to those of economic· and physical systems.

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