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Journal article
A Geometric Model of Elections in Five Federal Democracies
Statistics, politics, and policy, Vol.15(3), pp.273-286
10/10/2024
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Abstract
Abstract In an analysis of 1,825 state or provincial election outcomes in five federal democracies the rate of decay of incumbency ( K ) serves to partition the distribution of the vote for the incumbent party, the party of the head of government, between those who win a subsequent term and those who do not. In conjunction with the mean and standard deviation of the distribution, the weighted mean of the vote in re-election and defeat is identified. The model’s predictions are generally within 2–3 percentage points of the actual outcome.
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Details
- Title
- A Geometric Model of Elections in Five Federal Democracies
- Publication Details
- Statistics, politics, and policy, Vol.15(3), pp.273-286
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publisher
- Walter de Gruyter GmbH
- Identifiers
- 99380580295706600
- Academic Unit
- College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities; Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government
- Language
- English