PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
David Wayne Hunter
University of West Florida
Master of Arts (MA), University of West Florida
2015
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Abstract
A standardized list of presidential events is important when researching presidential approval, but inclusion of events on this list must be based on actual changes in approval. This thesis use polling data combined with economic and political factors to modify a list of events compiled by Newman and Forcehimes (2010). Expected monthly approval values are calculated for every month between 1953 and 2006. When the actual monthly approval differs significantly from the expected monthly approval, one assumes a significant event occurred. Based on this premise, 22 events were dropped from Newman and Forcehimes' list, and 13 new events were added, resulting in a revised list of 107 events. The new list of events is divided into different categories, and the influences these categories have on presidential approval are compared.