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A Comparison of Pseudo-Absence Statistical Analysis Ratios in Relation to Sea Turtle Nesting Preferences
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A Comparison of Pseudo-Absence Statistical Analysis Ratios in Relation to Sea Turtle Nesting Preferences

Halie E Wetherington
University of West Florida Libraries
Master of Science (MS), University of West Florida
2026

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Abstract

Limited research has examined nesting preferences of loggerhead sea turtles in the Florida Panhandle, particularly regarding the methodological approaches used to evaluate nesting habitat selection. The increasing use of pseudo-absence (PA) data—generated from the parameters of observed presence data—has expanded analytical possibilities, yet questions remain regarding its efficiency and validity. This study addresses both gaps by investigating geomorphological drivers of loggerhead nesting preferences while evaluating the influence of varying PA ratios on model outcomes.Five geomorphological variables were analyzed: foreshore slope, beach slope, foredune height, nest distance from shoreline, and nest elevation. These variables were modeled using three PA-to-presence ratios (2:1, 5:1, and 10:1). The study site included the Pensacola/Santa Rosa coastline, using a dataset from 2010 which contained 17 existing nesting points. Elevation profiles were generated in ArcGIS, and binary logistic regression models were developed in R to assess variable significance across PA scenarios. Results indicated that only foreshore slope was a significant predictor of nesting presence, and only within the 10:1 PA model. Although prior research suggests foreshore slope may influence nesting behavior, the emergence of significance solely at the highest PA ratio raises important methodological considerations regarding the reliability of large PA datasets. These findings contribute to a more refined understanding of loggerhead nesting ecology and highlight the need for careful evaluation of PA methodology. Improved methodological rigor will support more targeted beach nourishment strategies and promote the long-term conservation of loggerhead populations in the Florida Panhandle.
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