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Presidential job approval: Barack Obama and predecessors compared
Conference paper   Open access

Presidential job approval: Barack Obama and predecessors compared

Alfred G. Cuzán
Florida Political Science Association Conference (Jacksonville, FL, 03/2010)
2010

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Abstract

This is a preliminary exploration of President Barack Obama’s job approval. The causes and effects of how the public evaluates a president have been studied extensively since Mueller’s (1973) pioneering study, as evidenced by the nearly 100 items included in Gronke and Newman’s (2003) review essay. Here I make no attempt to summarize this growing literature, but have appended a selected list in the bibliography. Suffice to say for now that among the determinants of how well a president stands with the public, something to which I will refer as “approval” or “popularity,” two stand out: the economy and war. Additionally, short-term ebbs and flows associated with international “rally events,” crises, and scandals are also observed. As to effects, a president’s popularity is correlated with his prospects for reelection, how well his party does in midterm congressional elections, and the success of his legislative agenda.
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