Metrics
11 File views/ downloads
151 Record Views
Conference paper
Fiscal policy, economic conditions, and terms in office: Simulating presidential election outcomes
International Society for Systems Sciences 44th Conference, July 20-22, 2000 (Toronto, Canada, 07/20/2000–07/22/2000)
2000
Abstract
This paper reports on a set of simulations of a fiscal model of American presidential elections previously developed by the authors in which, independently of economic conditions, fiscal expansion and consecutive terms in office combine to reduce the percent of the two-party vote going to the incumbents, thus contributing to their defeat. The model adequately fits the data on all thirty elections held since 1880. The purpose of the simulations is to explore important attributes of the model not readily apparent in the historical data. The model views voters as averse but incumbents as favorably inclined to fiscal expansion. Theoretically, the confluence of these contrary currents should give rise to a fiscal-electoral cycle. To see if this is the case, 1,000 elections are simulated. Two feedback loops are observed, the joint operation of which results in the expected fiscal-electoral cycle. The cycle places a natural limit on the number of consecutive terms a party will remain in control of the White House. These findings suggest crucial behavioral differences between democracies and dictatorships.
Details
- Title
- Fiscal policy, economic conditions, and terms in office
- Resource Type
- Conference paper
- Conference
- International Society for Systems Sciences 44th Conference, July 20-22, 2000 (Toronto, Canada, 07/20/2000–07/22/2000)
- Format
- pdf
- Copyright
- Permission granted to the University of West Florida Libraries to digitize and/or display this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires the permission of the copyright holder.
- Identifiers
- 99380090636806600
- Academic Unit
- Reubin O'D. Askew Department of Government ; College of Arts, Social Sciences, and Humanities
- Language
- English